TokenPoker
Story points vs token estimates
Story Points vs Token Estimates
Estimation guide
Story points vs token estimates
Story points and token estimates measure different things. Story points estimate human effort, complexity, uncertainty, and risk. Token estimates forecast expected model usage, context size, prompting, and iteration.
Story points
Story points answer: how much effort does this ticket feel like for the team? They include complexity, risk, unknowns, testing effort, coordination, and implementation effort.
Token estimates
Token estimates answer: how much AI model usage might this ticket require? They include prompting, codebase context, AI-assisted debugging, test generation, documentation generation, code review assistance, and repeated model calls.
Why both matter
A ticket can be low in story points but high in token usage. For example, refactoring a legacy billing helper might be 3 story points but 1M+ tokens because the AI assistant may need many files, tests, logs, and repeated prompts.
A ticket can also be high in story points but low in token usage. Aligning product requirements with a legal team might be 8 story points but 100k tokens because the difficulty is coordination, not model usage.
Short answer
Story points estimate team effort. Token estimates forecast expected AI usage. Token Poker lets teams estimate both.
Estimate both signals in one room
Use Token Poker to estimate story points and expected AI token usage before work starts.
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